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楼主:养心门户 时间:2017年12月11日 21:37:58 点击:0 回复:0
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Investors seem to have fallen out of love with the Chinese tech giant after a string of bad news this year that included the company’s very public skirmish with a Chinese regulator. Alibaba is no longer the invincible Chinese e-commerce star that stockbrokers from Manhattan to Des Moines thought it was. Or is it?继一系列有关阿里巴巴的负面新闻(包括公开叫板国家工商总局)出现之后,投资者似乎已经对这家中国科技巨头的热情转冷。从美国东岸的曼哈顿到中西部的得梅因,股票经纪人眼中,阿里巴巴已不再是所向披靡的中国电子商务明星。For now the questions are, Can China’s most powerful e-commerce company recover some of its swagger from last fall? Can it put the criticism of fake products and a weak quarter behind it? Or will Jack Ma amp; Co. be left explaining, again, how they perfectly timed the market’s top when staging an IPO?现在的问题是,作为中国最有影响力的电商企业,阿里巴巴还能从去年秋天夸张的造势中重振雄风吗?它能摆脱外界批评淘宝卖假货以及季度业绩低迷的影响吗?还是说,马云得再度解释一下,阿里巴巴在筹备IPO的过程中是怎样凑巧完美地赶上了市场高点?You can turn to a couple places for answers. There’s a gaggle of analysts who opine on Alibaba’s fortunes for a living. Unfortunately, Wall Street analysts don’t have a strong record when it comes to predicting the future—and nine out of ten of them don’t even live in China, where Alibaba does almost all of its business.你可以从中美两地入手寻找。美国有一大群分析师就靠评估阿里谋生。但可惜的是,华尔街分析师预测未来的记录并不出色,而且他们十有八九都不住在中国,而阿里巴巴几乎所有的业务都在中国。This brings up an important point. The great stock-picker Peter Lynch said you should buy what you know. Warren Buffett, probably the best investor in the history of man, follows a similar philosophy—sticking to U.S. businesses he understands like Coca-Cola and GEICO. Do many people in the ed States understand Alibaba’s core businesses Taobao, Tmall, and Alipay? Of course not. Living in the U.S. makes tracking Alibaba almost as hard as drinking as much Cherry Coke as Buffett in a day.那么重点来了。选股大师彼得o林奇说过,要买自己了解的股票。堪称史上最佳投资者的沃伦o巴菲特也遵循类似的投资哲学,即只投资自己看得懂的美国公司,比如可口可乐和美国政府雇员保险公司。可是有多少美国人了解淘宝、天猫和付宝这些阿里巴巴的核心业务呢?没几个。在美国追踪阿里巴巴动向的难度,几乎不亚于每天畅饮和巴菲特一样多的樱桃可乐。That’s when it pays to be local. To have boots on the ground, like the military says.这就是地利。就像军事上所说的,要扎根地面。That’s why I decided to stage an informal poll recently about Alibaba. I was curious what some of the smartest business people I know in China think about the company’s (and stock’s) prospects. Last week I sent an email to 31 businesspeople and consultants I know working in China, asking a simple question: where do you think Alibaba’s stock is going for the rest of 2015? Up? Down? Or back down to its IPO level?出于这个原因,最近我决定对阿里巴巴进行一次非正式调查。在中国,我认识一些绝顶聪明的商界人士,我很想知道他们对阿里巴巴(及其股票)的前景有何看法。上周,我向31位在中国工作的生意人以及咨询顾问发出了电子邮件,其中只有一个简单的问题:你认为余下这年阿里巴巴的股价将何去何从?会涨?会跌?还是回归发行价?Some of these people run businesses. Others track them as consultants. Some are Chinese, others are foreigners who have been working in China for years. I didn’t consider anyone an Alibaba expert. But all know something about Alibaba’s prospects thanks to osmosis.在这些人中,有一部分是企业经营者,另一部分则从事咨询工作并对前者进行追踪;有一些是中国人,还有一些是在华工作多年的外国人。我觉得他们没有哪一位对阿里巴巴了如指掌。但通过耳濡目染,他们对阿里巴巴的前景都有一些见解。Most of those who responded wanted to be clear about why they picked their answer. For example, one person recommended shorting the stock, reasoning that while people may be excited about Alibaba expanding the U.S. by opening a cloud service in Silicon Valley, that might only gloss over Alibaba’s struggles before the stock continues its downslide.大多数做出回应的人都解释了自己为何会这样回答。比如说,一位受访者建议做空阿里巴巴,原因是尽管该公司通过硅谷云务中心在美扩张也能算是兴奋点,但此举或许只是为了给股价持续滑坡前所遇到的困境打掩护 。Of the 31 people I asked about BABA, I got 10 responses. Of those, four said the stock would rise by the end of the year. Six thought it would continue falling for the rest of 2015 (one said it would make its way all the way back to a share—its September IPO listing price). It’s not a statistically significant sample by any means. That wasn’t the point. The point was to glean a little about what top business people in China, who work far outside Wall Street’s spin-zone and are surrounded by Alibaba’s products and platforms everyday, think of the stock’s (and company’s) chances.在我询问的这31人中,有10位回复了我的邮件。其中4位预计,到年底阿里巴巴的股价将上涨。另外6位认为今年剩余时间里这只股票将继续下跌(当中一位预测阿里巴巴的股价将一路跌回68美元,也就是去年9月份的发行价)。从统计学角度,这样的调查样本不具意义。但这不是重点。重点是,我们可以借此一窥中国商界高层对这只股票(和这家公司)的预期,他们远离华尔街,而且每天都被阿里巴巴的产品和平台所包围。Those who thought the stock is headed down had a couple reasons for thinking so. The first was that the excitement around Alibaba has evaporated. The IPO that had Idahoans talking about Taobao is a distant memory. Alibaba is back to being another business listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Its been months since David Faber flew to Hangzhou for an exclusive interview with Jack Ma. Things can’t stay in the spotlight forever.那几位看跌人士提出了一些理由。首先,围绕阿里巴巴的兴奋情绪已经荡然无存。阿里巴巴IPO时,连美国远离金融中心的爱达荷州人都会把淘宝作为话题,现在这已成为回忆。如今的阿里巴巴只是一家纽交所上市公司。美国CN主持人曾飞到杭州去专访马云,但这也已经是几个月之前的事了。没有什么事物能永远停留在聚光灯下。They gave a second reason. Alibaba is fighting more aggressively by the day with Tencent Holdings Ltd TCEHY -2.09% , China’s other tech giant whose WeChat network dominates social networking in the country and is encroaching more and more on Alibaba’s turf. Last year Tencent invested 5 million into JD.com JD 1.68% , Alibaba’s e-commerce rival. Alibaba is spending furiously to compete against Tencent, but some of those investments are coming at eye-watering valuations. Beyond the weak quarterly results headlines and squabbles with regulators, Alibaba faces real headwinds, the respondents said.另外,他们的第二条理由是,为了和腾讯抗衡,阿里巴巴的做法日趋激进。作为中国另一科技巨头,腾讯旗下的微信在国内社交网络中处于主导地位,而且腾讯还在不断挑战阿里巴巴的地盘。去年,腾讯向阿里巴巴在电商市场的对手京东投资2.15亿美元。阿里巴巴正斥巨资和腾讯竞争,但其中一些投资对象的估值水平让人欲哭无泪。这几位受访者指出,除了疲软的季度业绩以及和工商总局的口角,阿里巴巴面对的是实实在在的阻力。Of those who thought BABA would rise, the strength of the business was a common reason given. The company commands four-fifths of the e-commerce market in China, which happens to be the world’s largest at 0 billion and is growing 25% a year. Alipay is the country’s dominant online payment system. Tmall is such a strong platform in China that Alibaba rival Amazon.com AMZN 0.86% just opened its own store there.而对阿里巴巴看涨的受访者,则普遍将原因归结于阿里的业务实力。该公司占有中国五分之四的电商市场,而后者的规模高达4000亿美元,居全球之首,而且还在以每年25%的速度增长。付宝是中国在线付领域的主导者。天猫在国内实力非凡,以至于阿里巴巴的对手亚马逊不久之前都在天猫上开了店。Another reason: Alibaba has cherry-picked top talent in China, one respondent said. Alibaba’s massive spending on startups in China and overseas is bringing key executives into the fold. Last year it acquired UCWeb, a Chinese mobile web browsing company with respected executives like its CEO Yu Yongfu, in the country’s biggest Internet deal.还有一位受访者表示,另一个原因是阿里巴巴拥有中国最顶尖的人才。它把巨额资金投入国内外的初创企业,从而网罗了这些公司的核心高管。去年,阿里巴巴收购了移动浏览器公司UCWeb,创下了互联网行业并购规模之最,而UCWeb当时的首席执行官俞永福等高层在业内颇受敬重。No-one can divine where Alibaba ends the year. But if you wanna get close, you might start by listening to the business people who are surrounded by Alibaba every day.今年底阿里巴巴的股价将收于多少,没人能未卜先知。不过,如果大家想让自己的预期更接近实际水平,或许可以先听听那些每日接触阿里巴巴的商界人士的意见。 /201503/367034

It took three days — three long, often confusing and frustrating days — for me to fall for the Apple Watch. But once I fell, I fell hard.我用了三天,漫长的、时常感到困惑和沮丧的三天,才爱上Apple Watch。但一旦爱上了,就爱得颇为深沉。First there was a day to learn the device’s initially complex user interface. Then another to determine how it could best fit it into my life. And still one more to figure out exactly what Apple’s first major new product in five years is trying to do — and, crucially, what it isn’t.首先,用了一天时间来学习这款设备的用户界面,它一开始有些复杂。然后又用了一天确定如何对它进行最佳设置,以适合我的生活。还要用一天来弄明白,作为苹果(Apple)五年来推出的首款重要的新产品,它试图实现什么,以及更为关键的——它不打算实现什么。It was only on Day 4 that I began appreciating the ways in which the elegant 0 computer on my wrist was more than just another screen. By notifying me of digital events as soon as they happened, and letting me act on them instantly, without having to fumble for my phone, the Watch became something like a natural extension of my body — a direct link, in a way that I’ve never felt before, from the digital world to my brain. The effect was so powerful that people who’ve previously commented on my addiction to my smartphone started noticing a change in my behavior; my wife told me that I seemed to be getting lost in my phone less than in the past. She found that a blessing.到第四天时,我才开始体会它的好处,我手腕上这款650美元(约合4000元人民币)、外形典雅的电脑并非只是又一块显示屏那么简单。它能把刚刚发生的数码事件第一时间通知给我,让我做出及时的应对,但又不用去摸手机,这样一来,它就成了我身体的自然延伸,以一种我以前从未感觉到的方式,将数码世界和我的大脑直接连接在了一起。这种影响如此之大,以致于之前曾说我痴迷于智能手机的人,都开始注意到了我的行为变化;我妻子对我说,我似乎不像过去那么沉迷于手机了。她认为这是上天的恩赐。The Apple Watch is far from perfect, and, starting at 0 and going all the way up to ,000, it isn’t cheap. Though it looks quite smart, with a selection of stylish leather and metallic bands that make for a sharp departure from most wearable devices, the Apple Watch works like a first-generation device, with all the limitations and flaws you’d expect of brand-new technology.Apple Watch远非完美,并且不便宜,从350美元起,扶摇直上可以到1.7万美元。尽管看起上去相当漂亮,选用了时尚的皮革和金属腕带,并由此显得与大部分可穿戴设备截然不同,但Apple Watch的表现还是像个第一代设备,有着人们对一项全新的技术所能猜到的一切制约和缺陷。What’s more, unlike previous breakthrough Apple products, the Watch’s software requires a learning curve that may deter some people. There’s a good chance it will not work perfectly for most consumers right out of the box, because it is best after you fiddle with various software settings to personalize use. Indeed, to a degree unusual for a new Apple device, the Watch is not suited for tech novices. It is designed for people who are inundated with notifications coming in through their phones, and for those who care to think about, and want to try to manage, the way the digital world intrudes on their lives.此外,不同于之前具有突破意义的苹果产品,Watch的软件要求用户经历一个学习过程,这一点可能会阻碍一些人。对大部分消费者来说,Watch不是那种买来就能完美使用的东西,因为只有在用户通过拨弄各种软件设置,进行完个性化定制后,它才会处于最佳状态。实际上Watch不太适合科技新手,这一点的严重程度,是在以往的苹果新产品中不多见的。它的设计,面向的是被手机通知淹没的人,或是愿意去思考数码世界对生活的打扰,并试图去管理它的人。Still, even if it’s not yet for everyone, Apple is on to something with the device. The Watch is just useful enough to prove that the tech industry’s fixation on computers that people can wear may soon bear fruit. In that way, using the Apple Watch over the last week reminded me of using the first iPhone. Apple’s first smartphone was revolutionary not just because it did what few other phones could do, but also because it showed off the possibilities of a connected mobile computer. As the iPhone and its copycats became more powerful and ubiquitous, the mobile computer became the basis of a wide range of powerful new tech applications, from messaging to ride-sharing to payments.然而,即便并非为所有人准备,苹果在这款设备上还是摸索到了一些东西。Watch的实用性已经足以明,科技业对可穿戴电脑的迷恋,可能很快就会结出果实了。在这一点上,过去一周使用Apple Watch的经历,让我想起了用第一款iPhone时的情景。苹果的第一款智能手机具有革命性的意义,不仅是因为它做到了鲜有其他手机能做到的事情,还因为它显示出了联网的移动电脑的可能性。随着iPhone及其追随者变得越来越强大和普及,这种移动电脑成了强大新技术的广泛应用的基础,无论是即时通讯,拼车务,还是付应用。Similarly, the most exciting thing about the Apple Watch isn’t the device itself, but the new tech vistas that may be opened by the first mainstream wearable computer. On-body devices have obvious uses in health care and payments. As the tech analyst Tim Bajarin has written, Apple also seems to be pushing a vision of the Watch as a general-purpose remote control for the real world, a nearly bionic way to open your hotel room, board a plane, call up an Uber or otherwise have the physical world respond to your desires nearly automatically.同理,Apple Watch最令人兴奋之处不在于设备本身,而是在于它作为第一款主流可穿戴电脑可能开辟的科技新天地。穿戴在身体上的设备显然可以在医疗和付领域大有作为。正如科技分析师蒂姆·巴加林(Tim Bajarin)在文章中所写的那样,苹果似乎还在推动这样一种设想的实现:把手表作为真实世界里的一款多功能遥控器,一种几近用意念一般打开酒店房门、登机、叫车的方式,让物理世界能接近自动地回应自己的愿望。These situations suggest that the Watch may push us to new heights of collective narcissism. Yet in my week with the device, I became intrigued by the opposite possibility — that it could address some of the social angst wrought by smartphones. The Apple Watch’s most ingenious feature is its “taptic engine,” which alerts you to different digital notifications by silently tapping out one of several distinct patterns on your wrist. As you learn the taps over time, you will begin to register some of them almost subconsciously: incoming phone calls and alarms feel throbbing and insistent, a text feels like a gentle massage from a friendly bumblebee, and a coming calendar appointment is like the persistent pluck of a harp. After a few days, I began to get snippets of information from the digital world without having to look at the screen — or, if I had to look, I glanced for a few seconds rather than minutes.这些情景表明,这款手表可能会把我们带向集体自恋的新高度。然而,在我使用这款设备的一个星期里,我开始思考相反的可能性——它也可能会解决智能手机带来的社交忧虑。Apple Watch的最巧妙的功能是“轻拍引擎”——通过用不同的模式轻拍你的手腕,提醒你关注不同的数字化通知。当你逐渐熟悉了这些提醒的区别后,它们会在你的潜意识里留下深刻印象:来电和提醒是急促连续的跳动,短信提醒像是一个友好的大黄蜂的温柔,行事历安排像是不断地拨弄一把竖琴。几天之后,我不需要看屏幕就可以获得来自数码世界的信息提醒了——或者,如果我需要看的话,也只需花上几秒钟扫一眼,而不是好几分钟。If such on-body messaging systems become more pervasive, wearable devices can become more than a mere flashy accessory to the phone. The Apple Watch could usher in a transformation of social norms just as profound as those we saw with its brother, the smartphone — except, amazingly, in reverse.如果这种穿戴在身体上的消息系统更加普遍,可穿戴设备就不光是手机的一种酷炫的配件。Apple Watch可以引入一场智能手机曾经引发的那种深刻的社会规范变革,只不过是向相反的方向,这让人喜出望外。For now, the dreams are hampered by the harsh realities of a new device. The Watch is not an iPhone on your wrist. It has a different set of input mechanisms — there’s the digital crown, a knob used for scrolling and zooming, and a touch screen that can be pressed down harder for extra options. There is no full on-screen keyboard, so outbound messages are confined to a set of default responses, emoji and, when you’re talking to other Watch users, messages that you can draw or tap.目前,这些梦想在一款新设备的严峻现实前被压抑了。这款手表并不是手腕上的iPhone。它的输入机制不同——它有一个数字表冠,即用来滑动和放大屏幕的旋钮,还有一个可以通过增大按压力度调出其他选项的触屏。Apple Watch没有可以显示在屏幕上的全键盘,因此它发出的信息仅限于一系列默认回复和表情符号。当你与其他Apple Watch用户沟通时,还可以画图或轻拍。The Watch also relies heavily on voice dictation and the voice assistant Siri, which is more useful on your wrist than on your phone, but still just as hit-or-miss. I grew used to calling on Siri to set kitchen timers or reminders while I was cooking, or to look up the weather while I was driving. And I also grew used to her getting these requests wrong almost as often as she got them right.这款手表还严重依赖语音指令和语音助手Siri,后者在手表上比在手机上用处更大 ,但也很不稳定。我越来越习惯于在烹饪的时候用苹果语音助手Siri来设置厨房的定时器或提醒设备,或是在开车时用它来查看天气。而且我也越来越习惯她犯错的频率几乎与做对的频率一样高。The Watch also has a completely different software design from a smartphone. Though it has a set of apps, interactions are driven more by incoming notifications as well as a summary view of some apps, known as glances. But because there isn’t much room on the watch’s screen for visual cues indicating where you are — in an app, a notification or a glance — in the early days, you’ll often find yourself lost, and something that works in one place won’t work in another.它也拥有与智能手机完全不同的软件设计。尽管它有一系列应用程序,但互动主要来自收到的通知和一些应用程序的摘要视图——这种功能被称作“glance”(瞥一眼)。但是,由于目前手表屏幕上没有太多空间用来放置能说明你所处位置——在应用程序、通知还是“瞥一眼”中——的视觉线索,你经常会发现自己迷了路,而且有些东西在一个地方起作用,但在另一个地方就会失效。Finding nirvana with the watch involves adjusting your notification settings on your phone so that your wrist does not constantly buzz with information that doesn’t make sense on the Watch — like Facebook status updates, messages from Snapchat, or every single email about brownies in the office kitchen. Apple’s notification settings have long been unduly laborious; battling them while your hand is buzzing off the hook is an extra level of discomfort.要想对这只手表驾轻就熟,还需要调整你手机上的通知设置,这样你的手腕才不会因为手表上毫无意义的信息而不停震动——比如Facebook状态更新、来自Snapchat的信息,以及每一封电子邮件——包括那些关于办公室厨房里的布朗尼蛋糕的。苹果的通知设置一直过于繁复;在与它们对抗的同时,你的手还在不停地震动,更是令人不适。Other problems: Third-party apps are mostly useless right now. The Uber app didn’t load for me, the Twitter app is confusing and the app for Starwood hotels mysteriously deleted itself and then hung up on loading when I reinstalled it. In the end, though, it did let me open a room at the W Hotel in Manhattan just by touching the watch face to the door.其他问题:目前第三方应用程序基本没用。Uber的应用程序无法载入,Twitter令人疑惑,喜达屋(Starwood)酒店的应用程序曾莫名其妙地自行删除,当我重新安装时,它又一直停留在加载状态。不过最后,它还是让我在曼哈顿的W酒店打开了房间,方法就是用表面触碰房门。I also used the Watch to pay for New York cabs and groceries at Whole Foods, and to present my boarding pass to security agents at the airport. When these encounters worked, they were magical, like having a secret key to unlock the world right on my arm. What’s most thrilling about the Apple Watch, unlike other smartwatches I’ve tried, is the way it invests a user with a general sense of empowerment. If Google brought all of the world’s digital information to our computers, and the iPhone brought it to us everywhere, the Watch builds the digital world directly into your skin. It takes some time getting used to, but once it clicks, this is a power you can’t live without.我还用它在纽约付了打车费,在全食超市(Whole Foods)结账,并向机场安检人员展示了我的登机牌。当它在这些事情中起作用时,就有种神奇的感觉,好像我的胳膊上就有一把能开启这个世界的密钥一样。关于Apple Watch,最令人兴奋的一点就是,与我尝试过的其他智能手表不同,它能使用户获得一种被赋予能力的感觉。如果说谷歌(Google)把世界上所有的数字信息放到了电脑上,iPhone又使我们能随处查看这些信息,Apple Watch则直接把这个数码世界嵌入到你的皮肤里。要适应这一切还需要一些时间,但是一旦适应,你就会获得一种不可或缺的力量。The New York Times announced last week that it had created “one-sentence stories” for the Apple Watch, so let me end this review with a note that could fit on the watch’s screen: The first Apple Watch may not be for you — but someday soon, it will change your world.《纽约时报》上周宣布,它为Apple Watch创造了“一句话报道”,所以让我用一句可以放在手表屏幕上的话来结束这篇:Apple Watch刚开始可能不适合你——但是在不久的未来,它将改变你的世界。 /201504/369420

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