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2018年01月21日 14:33:30来源:兰州晨报


  • Hi, and Merry Christmas. I’m honored to have the chance to speak with you and your family this year.Recently, we learned that our governments, working in concert, have created a system of worldwide mass surveillance, watching everything we do.Great Britain’s George Orwell warned us of the danger of this kind of information. The types of collection in the book—microphones and cameras, TVs that watch us—are nothing compared to what we have available today. We have sensors in our pockets that track us everywhere we go.Think about what this means for the privacy of the average person. A child born today will grow up with no conception of privacy at all. They’ll never know what it means to have a private moment to themselves—an unrecorded, unanalyzed thought. And that’s a problem, because privacy matters. Privacy is what allows us to determine who we are and who we want to be.The conversation occurring today will determine the amount of trust we can place both in the technology that surrounds us and the government that regulates it. Together, we can find a better balance, end mass surveillance and remind the government that if it really wants to know how we feel, asking is always cheaper than spying.For everyone out there listening, thank you, and Merry Christmas.201501/353957
  • And they had traveled from near, they had traveled from far,because they wanted to make their voices heard. 有些住在附近,有些远道而来,但他们都想表达自己的声音And I asked one of the voters, I said, Whom are you going to vote for?我问一个选民:你打算投谁的票?And he said, Im sorry, I cant tell you.他说:不好意思不能告诉你。He said that his vote was in his heart.他说他心中有打算。And I understood, this was their election,and they werent going to let anyone take it away from them. 我非常理解,这是他们的选举,他们不会让任何人夺走这个权利。Now the first round of the voting didnt bring forth a clear winner,so nobody had achieved the absolute majority,so voting went into a second round three weeks later. 第一轮选举没有诞生一个明晰的获选人,还没有人完全占上风,所以3周后进行第二轮选举。The candidates were back on the road; they were campaigning.候选人重新开始竞选活动。The rhetoric of the candidates, of course, changed.他们收起了文绉绉的措辞。The heat was on.气氛变得激烈。And then the cliche came to haunt us.然后就出现了意料之中的状况。There were claims of intimidation at the polling stations,of ballot boxes being stolen.投票站收到举报,声称投票箱被窃取。Inflated results started coming in and the mob was starting to get out of control.随之而来一系列的麻烦人群开始失去控制。We witnessed the eruption of violence in the streets.我们目睹了大街上大量的暴力事件。People were being beaten brutally.很多人惨遭毒打。The army started firing their guns. People were scrambling.军队开始开火。人群混乱不堪。It was complete chaos.完全一片混乱。And my heart sank,because I thought, here we are again. 我的心渐渐往下沉,因为我想,再一次。Here is another proof that the African is not capable of governing himself.非洲再一次明我们非洲人没有能力自治。And not only that, I am documenting it documenting my own cultural shortcomings.不仅如此,我正在记录,记录着我自己的文化的短处。So when the echo of the gunshots had lingered,it was soon drowned by the chanting of the mob,and I didnt believe what I was hearing.然而当声逐渐散去,人群开始呼喊,我无法相信我所听到的。They were chanting, We want peace.他们在呼喊我们渴望和平。We want peace.我们渴望和平。201508/391460
  • Before I talk about that,谈到这之前Ive written down at the bottom there我在底下标出了the slope of this curve, this straight line.这条曲线的斜率,即这条直线Its three-quarters, roughly,大约为3比4which is less than one -- and we call that sublinear.小于1,呈“次线性”And heres the point of that.这里有一点值得注意It says that, if it were linear,当最大斜率the steepest slope,呈线性then doubling the size那么当体型翻倍you would require double the amount of energy.所需能量也随之翻倍But its sublinear, and what that translates into而若呈次线性,情况则是is that, if you double the size of the organism,当生物的体型翻倍you actually only need 75 percent more energy.它实际只需增加75%的能量So a wonderful thing about all of biology生物的奇妙之处就在于is that it expresses an extraordinary economy of scale.它巧妙地展现了经济的伸展能力The bigger you are systematically,根据准确定义的规律according to very well-defined rules,一个系统越大less energy per capita.其所需的平均能力越少Now any physiological variable you can think of,你能够想到的任何变量any life history event you can think of,任何历史事件if you plot it this way, looks like this.只要你照着这样制表,都会得到相似的图形There is an extraordinary regularity.其一致性非常惊人So you tell me the size of a mammal,只要你说出一种哺乳动物的体型I can tell you at the 90 percent level everything about it我就能告诉你关于其生理和生命周期等情况in terms of its physiology, life history, etc.正确率90%And the reason for this is because of networks.原因就在于网络All of life is controlled by networks --所有生命都由网络所控制from the intracellular through the multicellular不论是单细胞还是多细胞生物through the ecosystem level.整个生态系统都是如此And youre very familiar with these networks.你对这些网络并不陌生Thats a little thing that lives inside an elephant.这是生长在大象体内的一种小生物And heres the summary of what Im saying.这是我讲话内容的总结If you take those networks,你有了这些网络this idea of networks,网络的概念and you apply universal principles,再用上普遍原理mathematizable, universal principles,数学化的普遍原理all of these scalings所有规模增长and all of these constraints follow,所有限制因素including the description of the forest,包括森林的情况the description of your circulatory system,你循环系统的情况the description within cells.细胞内部情况等One of the things I did not stress in that introduction我在介绍中没有提及的一点是was that, systematically, the pace of life生长的节奏会随着你体型的增大decreases as you get bigger.而系统性地减缓Heart rates are slower; you live longer;心率会减缓,你活得更久diffusion of oxygen and resources通过细胞膜的氧气across membranes is slower, etc.和物质的流动减缓The question is: Is any of this true问题是,这是否for cities and companies?也适用于城市和企业So is London a scaled up Birmingham,伦敦是否是长大了的伯明翰which is a scaled up Brighton, etc., etc.?而伯明翰是否是长大了的布莱顿,等等Is New York a scaled up San Francisco,纽约是否是长大了的旧金山which is a scaled up Santa Fe?而旧金山是否是长大了的圣达菲Dont know. We will discuss that.不知道,我们稍候再讨论But they are networks,但它们都是网络and the most important network of cities而城市最重要的网络is you.就是你Cities are just a physical manifestation城市只是of your interactions,你我社会活动our interactions,以及个体相互聚拢集合的and the clustering and grouping of individuals.物质表现Heres just a symbolic picture of that.这只是一张简易图表And heres scaling of cities.这是城市规模的扩大This shows that in this very simple example,这幅图显示出了一个非常简单的例子which happens to be a mundane example这例子很寻常of number of petrol stations加油站的数量as a function of size --作为规模plotted in the same way as the biology --按照同于生物的方法制表you see exactly the same kind of thing.你能够观察到一模一样的结果There is a scaling.上面显示了增长的趋势That is that the number of petrol stations in the city你告诉我城市的规模is now given to you我就能够说出when you tell me its size.这座城市有多少个加油站The slope of that is less than linear.斜率呈次线性There is an economy of scale.这是规模经济Less petrol stations per capita the bigger you are -- not surprising.城市越大,人均加油站数量就越小,并不稀奇But heres whats surprising.稀奇的在这里It scales in the same way everywhere.增长的规律在哪里都适用This is just European countries,这反映的只是欧洲国家的情况but you do it in Japan or China or Colombia,但如果你用同样的方法观察日本,中国或哥伦比亚always the same结果都是一样的with the same kind of economy of scale同样的规模经济to the same degree.同样的水平And any infrastructure you look at --而且,你看到的所有基础设施whether its the length of roads, length of electrical lines --不论是道路还是电线的长度anything you look at不论是什么has the same economy of scale scaling in the same way.都存在增长模式相同的规模经济Its an integrated system这个综合体系that has evolved despite all the planning and so on.不停演进,无论如何规划都是如此But even more surprising而当你看到is if you look at socio-economic quantities,社会经济数量quantities that have no analog in biology,即八千到一万年前that have evolved when we started forming communities我们开始建立社区时的社会经济数量eight to 10,000 years ago.你们会感到更加意外The top one is wages as a function of size上图以工资作为规模参数plotted in the same way.同理制表And the bottom one is you lot --而下面的是“你”super-creatives plotted in the same way.也就是超级智能人,同理制表And what you see上面显示出is a scaling phenomenon.一个规模增长的现象But most important in this,但图上最重要的是the exponent, the analog to that three-quarters新陈代谢率的幂for the metabolic rate,近似于三分之四is bigger than one -- its about 1.15 to 1.2.大于1,大约在1.15和1.2之间Here it is,意思是which says that the bigger you are规模越大the more you have per capita, unlike biology --人均数就越多,与生物学的情况相反higher wages, more super-creative people per capita as you get bigger,工资越高,就有越多的超级智能人出现more patents per capita, more crime per capita.人均专利和犯罪率越高And weve looked at everything:我们研究了所有事物more AIDS cases, flu, etc.艾滋病病例,流感等等And here, theyre all plotted together.把这些都放在一起制成表Just to show you what we plotted,让你们看到here is income, GDP --我们把收入 GDPGDP of the city --城市的GDPcrime and patents all on one graph.犯罪和专利都放在一张图上And you can see, they all follow the same line.你们可以看到And heres the statement.下面是图的表述If you double the size of a city from 100,000 to 200,000,如果一个城市的规模从10万增长至20万from a million to two million, 10 to 20 million,从一百万到两百万,从一千万到两千万it doesnt matter,都一样then systematically在这个城市中you get a 15 percent increase工资,财富,艾滋病病例in wages, wealth, number of AIDS cases,警察人数number of police,任何你能想到的事物anything you can think of.都会系统地增加15%201504/369999
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