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2018年02月19日 06:04:19来源:央视博文

Well, that’s a short little sermon. 上面我简单地我说了一下我的看法。So Lets get on with what you’re interested in. 下面就让我们开始谈谈你们所感兴趣的。And like I say, in go all over. 就像我之前说的那样。So, I don’t know exactly how we gotta have this, but lets start with a hand here someplace or other. 我不知道接下来怎样进行,那我们从举手示意的同学开始提问题吧。There we go, for the first one...yeah, right here.第一个问题,那个同学。Q: Your thoughts about Japan?问题:您对日本的看法?W: My thoughts about Japan? I am not a macro guy. 巴菲特:我对日本的看法?我不是一个太宏观的人。Now I said to myself Berkshire Hathaway can borrow money for 10 years at one percent. 我所在的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在日本10年期的贷款利息只有1%。I say gee, I took Graham’s class 45 years ago and I have been working hard at this thing all my life. 我对自己说,45年前,我上了本杰明.格拉姆的课程,然后我就一直勤勤恳恳,努力工作,Maybe I can earn more than 1% annually. I really work hard at it. 也许我应该比1%挣的多点吧?One percent. It doesn’t seem impossible, doesn’t it? 看上去那不是不可能的。So I wouldn’t want to get involved in currency risk, so it would have to be Yen-denominated. 我不想卷入任何汇率波动的风险,所以我会选择以日元为基准的资产。I would have to be in Japanese Real Estate or Japanese companies or something of the sort and all I have to do is to beat 1%. 如地产或企业,必须是日本国内的。我唯一需要做的就是挣得比1%多,That is all the money is going to cost me and I can get it for 10 years. 因为那是我资金的成本,十年内我要收回来的。So far I haven’t found anything. It is kind of interesting. 可直到现在,我还没有发现一家可以投资的生意。这真的很有趣。The Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity, 日本企业的资产回报率都很低。and they have a bunch of businesses that earn 4%, 5%, 6% on equity 他们有少数企业会有4%,5%,或6%的回报。and it is very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you are in doesn’t earn very much money. 如果日本企业本身赚不了多少钱的话,那么其资产投资者是很难获得好的回报的。Now some people do it in fact. 当然,有一些人也赚了钱。Ive got a friend, Walter Schloss, who worked at Graham at the same time I did. 我有一个和我同期为本杰明.格拉姆工作过的朋友,他叫沃尔特·施洛斯。And it was the first way I went to stocks to buy stocks selling way below working capital. A very cheap, quantitative stocks. 那是我第一次运用买股票的方法,即寻找那些股票价格远低于流动资本的公司,非常便宜但股票数量有限的公司。I call it the “cigar butt” approach to investing. 我管那方法叫雪茄烟蒂投资法。You walk down the street, you look around for a cigar butt someplace. 你满地找雪茄烟蒂,And you finally see one and it is soggy and kind of repulsive, but there is one puff left in it .终于你找到一个湿透了的,令人讨厌的烟蒂,看上去还能抽上一口。So you pick it up and the puff is free. 那一口可是免费的。I mean it is a cigar butt stock. I mean you get one free puff on it and then you throw it away and walk down the street and try another one.你把它捡起来,抽上最后一口,然后扔了,接着找下一个。I mean it is not elegant, but it works. 这听上去一点都不优雅,但是很有效。If you are looking for a free puff,it works. 如果你找的是一口免费的雪茄烟,这方法还值得做。Those are low return businesses. 不要做低回报率的生意。201308/253853。

  • And as he performed, I looked around the audience, and I saw their faces and the look in their eyes and their responsiveness to his music, and it was clear to me finally where the problem lay.他演出的时候,我看周围的观众,我看着他们的脸,他们的眼睛,他们对音乐的反应,很明显我知道了问题出在哪儿。It wasnt that the music that was lacking, it was my ability to appreciate it and to hear it in the right way.问题不在于音乐不够好,而在于我没有能力去欣赏,是我听的方式不对。The crowd, they would sing along and be totally immersed in his music.人群跟着一起唱,完全沉浸在他的音乐中。And I had this epiphany, that I was missing the point.我领悟到是我错了。And from now on, I was going to somehow learn how to get it.从此我开始学习如何欣赏它。I was gonna learn how to hear with local ears, and I deconstructed and analysed what it was, that made Chinese audiences connect with certain types of melodies and rhythms, and song structures, and lyrics, and thats what Ive been doing for the past almost twenty years.我开始学习如何用本土的方式来听,我解构它,分析它,是什么使中国听众喜欢这种独特的,旋律,节奏,歌曲结构和歌词,这就是过去的20年我一直在做的。And it took me a long time and I am still learning, but at some point, I not only began to be able to appreciate the music but I started being able to contribute to it and create my own fresh spins on the tried-and-true.这需要很长的时间,我仍然在学习,但从某一刻开始,我不仅能够欣赏这种音乐,而且我开始能够贡献于它,在实践当中贡献我自己的新鲜血液。And I think this happens to everyone, really, who is on the outside looking in, it always looks strange.我觉得这个发生在每一个人身上,真的,以一个局外者的视角向里探望总会觉得奇怪。If you looked at things from your perspective, youre always going to think that these people are weirdos, whats wrong with them, why are they listening to these stuff?如果你以自身的角度去审视别人,你总是会觉得这些人是怪人,他们到底怎么了,他们为什么听这些东西。And Im saying that you can make an effort and get , it can be done, and Im living proof of that.而我说,你可以努力并最终理解,我就是活生生的例子。And as an ambassador of Chinese pop, Im trying to get people to open up to a sound that they may not feel is palatable at the first listen.作为华语流行歌曲的大使,我力图让人们对第一次觉得别扭的音乐保持开放的心。So what else can we do to reduce this imbalance in our popular cultures?所以我们还能做什么来减少这种流行文化中的不平衡呢?Well, maybe give a talk at the Oxford Union. Tour more outside of China?也许在牛津辩论社做个演讲是其一。在中国之外多开演唱会?But seriously, actually I think the tides have aly started to change, very slowly, very cautiously, almost calculatingly. You see more cross-cultural exchange now.但严肃地说,我觉得潮流已经开始改变了,慢慢地,小心地,一步步地,你现在能看到更多跨文化交流了。More interest in China, definitely a lot of joint ventures, a lot of co-productions in recent years.更多人在中国投股,近年来,显然有了更多合资企业,更多的合作产品。201507/385477。
  • Thank you. Thank you so much. Thank you very much, President Van Zant, and thanks to everyone at the New School for welcoming us today. Im delighted to be back.You know, over the past few months, I have had the opportunity to listen to Americans concerns about an economy that still isnt delivering for them. Its not delivering the way that it should. It still seems, to most Americans that I have spoken with, that it is stacked for those at the top.But Ive also heard about the hopes that people have for their future – going to college without drowning in debt; starting that small business theyve always dreamed about; getting a job that pays well enough to support a family and provide for a secure retirement.Previous generations of Americans built the greatest economy and strongest middle class the world has ever known on the promise of a basic bargain: if you work hard and do your part, you should be able to get ahead. And when you get ahead, America gets ahead. But over the past several decades, that bargain has eroded. Our job is to make it strong again.For 35 years, Republicans have argued that if we give more wealth to those at the top by cutting their taxes and letting big corporations write their own rules, it will trickle down, it will trickle down to everyone else. Yet every time they have a chance to try that approach, it explodes the national debt, concentrates wealth even more and does practically nothing to help hard-working Americans.Twice now in the past 20 years, a Democratic president has had to come in and clean up the mess left behind.I think the results speak for themselves. Under President Clinton – I like the sound of that – America saw the longest peacetime expansion in our history.Nearly 23 million jobs, a balanced budget and a surplus for the future, and most importantly, incomes rose across the board, not just for those aly at the top. Eight years later, President Obama and the American peoples hard work pulled us back from the brink of depression. President Obama saved the auto industry, imposed new rules on Wall Street and provided health care to 16 million Americans.Now today, today, as the shadow of crisis recedes and longer-term challenges come into focus, I believe we have to build a ;growth and fairness; economy. You cant have one without the other. We cant create enough jobs and new businesses without more growth, and we cant build strong families and support our consumer economy without more fairness. We need both, because while America is standing again, we are not yet running the way we should. Corporate profits are at near-record highs and Americans are working as hard as ever. But paychecks have barely budged in real terms. Families today are stretched in so many directions, and so are their budgets. Out-of-pocket costs of health care, child care, hearing for aging parents are rising a lot faster than wages.I hear this everywhere I go.The single mom who talked to me about juggling a job and classes at community college while raising three kids. She doesnt expect anything to come easy. But if she got a raise, everything wouldnt be quite so hard.The grandmother who works around the clock providing childcare to other peoples kids. Shes proud of her work, but the pay is barely enough to live on, especially with the soaring price of her prescription drugs.The young entrepreneur whose dream of buying a bowling alley where he worked as a teenager was nearly derailed by his student debt. If he can grow his business, hell be able to pay off his debt and pay his employees, including himself, more too.Millions of hard-working Americans tell similar stories. Wages need to rise to keep up with cost, paychecks need to grow. Families who work hard and do their part deserve to get ahead and stay ahead. The defining economic challenge of our time is clear:We must raise incomes for hard-working Americans, so they can afford a middle-class life. We must drive strong and steady income growth that lifts up families and lifts up our country. And that…and that will be my mission, from the first day I am President to the last. I…I will get up every day thinking about the families of America, like the family that I came from, with a hard-working dad who started a small business and scrimped and saved, and gave us a good middle-class life. I will be thinking about all the people that I represented here in New York and the stories that they told me, and that I worked with them to improve. And I will, as your President, take on this challenge against the backdrop of major changes in our economy and the global economy that didnt start with the recession and wont end with the recovery.201508/395621。
  • Again, you cant connect the dots looking forward;再次说明的是,你在向前展望的时候不可能将这些片断串连起来;you can only connect them looking backwards.你只能在回顾的时候将点点滴滴串连起来。So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future.所以你必须相信这些片断会在你未来的某一天串连起来。You have to trust in something – your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever.你必须要相信某些东西:你的勇气、目的、生命、因缘......This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.这个过程从来没有令我失望,只是让我的生命更加地与众不同。My second story is about love and loss.我的第二个故事是关于爱和失去。I was lucky –I found what I loved to do early in life.我非常幸运, 因为我在很早的时候就找到了我钟爱的东西。Woz and I started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20.沃兹和我在二十岁的时候就在父母的车库里面开创了苹果公司。We worked hard,我们工作得很努力,and in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a billion company with over 4000 employees.十年之后, 这个公司从那两个车库中的穷小子发展到了超过四千名的雇员、价值超过二十亿的大公司。We had just released our finest creation – the Macintosh –a year earlier,在公司成立的第九年,我们刚刚发布了最好的产品,那就是Macintosh。and I had just turned 30.我也快要到三十岁了。And then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company you started?在那一年, 我被炒了鱿鱼。你怎么可能被你自己创立的公司炒了鱿鱼呢?Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me,嗯,在苹果快速成长的时候,我们雇用了一个很有天分的家伙和我一起管理这个公司,and for the first year or so things went well.在最初的几年,公司运转的很好。But then our visions of the future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out.但是后来我们对未来的看法发生了分歧, 最终我们吵了起来。When we did, our Board of Directors sided with him.当争吵到不可开交的时候,董事会站在了他的那一边。So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out.所以在三十岁的时候,我离开了公司。What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone,在这么多人目光下我被炒了,我失去了成年后的整个生活重心,and it was devastating.这使我心力交瘁。I really didnt know what to do for a few months.在最初的几个月里,我真是不知道该做些什么。I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down –我觉得我很令上一代的创业家们很失望,that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me.我把他们交给我的接力棒弄丢了。I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly.我和创办惠普的David Pack、创办Intel的Bob Noyce见面,并试图向他们道歉。I was a very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the valley.这次失败弄得沸沸扬扬,我甚至想过逃离硅谷But something slowly began to dawn on me –I still loved what I did.但是,渐渐地,我开始有了一个想法——我仍然热爱我过去所做的一切。The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit.在苹果公司发生的这些风波丝毫没有改变这一点。I had been rejected, but I was still in love.我虽然被拒之门外,但我仍然深爱我的事业。And so I decided to start over.于是,我决定从头开始。201307/250092。
  • Give it four years, as many years as you spent here at Yale, and act both pro-active and spontaneous and do the things you can to free veterans from the new uncertainty that awaits them, from the mysterious fears they will face the day after they come home. Cultivate in them the faith to carry on and they will do the rest.做出四年的奉献,就像你们在耶鲁学习的时间一样长,积极行动起来,做些力所能及的事帮助退伍军人,让他们从回家时起,不再受等在他们面前新的未知之苦,不再遭受他们要面对的诡秘的恐惧之苦。培养他们继续生活下去的信念,剩下的就交给他们自己了。So commencement day arrives! Your work begins-work that will not be always joyful to you, labor that may not always fulfill you and days that will seem like one damn thing after the other. Its true-you will now work every day for the rest of your lives, that full-time job. Your career, as human beings, and as Americans, and as graduates of Yale, is to stand on the fulcrum between fear and faith.你们要毕业了,这代表工作就要开始。未来的工作也许不会那么好玩,有时你会觉得很难有成就感,有时你会做什么都不顺。但是,从现在开始,你们人生的每一天,都要投入一份全职的终身工作。而这份作为人类、作为美国人、作为耶鲁毕业生的终身事业,就是站在恐惧和信心的杠杆点上。Fear at your back, faith in front of you. Which way will you lean? Which way will you move? Move forward! Move ever forward!当信心在你的前面,恐惧在你的后方时,你会往哪个方向倾斜?你会往哪个方向移动?各位,向前行吧,永远都要向前行。And tweet out the picture of the results! It may make you as famous as Sam Tsui.然后,把你的努力成果,用推特告诉大家。这样,你或许也能像徐山姆一样,变成网络红人。Thank you! And Congratulations!谢谢大家!祝贺大家!201406/308660。
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